貝氏定理

幹嘛活到 85歲

8月 14, 2013

郭憶香

kuso

Bayes' theorem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia幹嘛活到 85歲? 有個65歲的老頭子，拿著全部過關的健康檢查報告，頗滿意的問醫生：「以65歲的年紀來說，已經挺不錯了吧？你覺得我可以活到85嗎？」醫生問：「我不知道 --- 你喝不喝酒、抽不抽煙、嗑不嗑藥.....？？？！！！」老先生回答：「對！除了上教堂、聖誕節偶爾喝點紅酒，20多歲後In probability theory and statistics, Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule) describes the probability of an event, based on conditions that might be related to the event. For example, suppose one is interested in whether Addison has can...

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三種學生

8月 14, 2013

謝語竹

kuso

Yudkowsky - Bayes' Theorem - Eliezer S. Yudkowsky甲：「我們班有三種學生。」乙：「哪三種？」甲：「第一種是留級的『留學生』。第二種是他爸交了很多錢才來上的『高財生』。第三種是上課特睏的『特睏生』」。乙：「哦。」衰退、蕭條、恐慌一個大學生請一位著名的經濟學家給衰退、蕭條、恐慌等詞下個定義。專家回答︰「這不難。衰退時人們需要把腰帶束緊。蕭條時就很難買到Bayes' Theorem for the curious and bewildered; an excruciatingly gentle introduction. ... 10 out of 1000 women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 800 out of 1000 women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies....

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阿伯人生傳 真的很好笑

8月 14, 2013

王采安

kuso

Bayes' Theorem (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)阿伯人生傳(真的很好笑)~~~~ 連貫起來【阿伯笑話】 一天，一位阿伯聽說麥當勞的東西很有名，便起了個大早，到麥當勞去吃早餐，負責點餐的工讀生小妹問：「請問這位先生需要什麼？阿伯道：「給我一個滿福堡！」小妹又問：「先生。你要加蛋嗎？」阿伯道：「好呀！」小妹說：「加蛋要多十塊喔！」阿伯很驚訝In this guise Bayes' theorem is particularly useful for inferring causes from their effects since it is often fairly easy to discern the probability of an effect given the presence or absence of a putative cause. For instance, physicians often screen for ...

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談戀愛

8月 14, 2013

郭靖萍

kuso

Bayes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia有一對男女正在吃晚餐…那個女生一直問那個男生：你愛不愛我？男生看了女生一眼又繼續吃晚餐女生很生氣又再問了一次：你愛不愛我？男生終於說：愛女生又問：那你要怎麼證明？忽然男生從口袋裡拿了三十元出來，且問女生：你有沒有十元？女生拿了十元給了男生…男生就把四十元放在桌上過了一會兒Bayes may refer to: Thomas Bayes (1702–1761), British mathematician, statistician and religious leader Bayesian probability Bayes' theorem, a result in probability theory Bayes estimator, a statistical estimator that minimizes the average risk Gilbert Bay...

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人嚇人，嚇死人

8月 14, 2013

林慕夢

kuso

Bayes' Theorem - Explained Like You're Five - YouTube人嚇人，嚇死人女子下了夜班準備回家去，後面一男子尾隨圖謀不軌。女子甚怕，路過墳地，靈機一動，對墳墓說：「爸爸，我回來了，開門啊。」男子大懼，哇哇大叫奔逃。女子心安，正要離開，忽然從墳墓中傳來陰森森的聲音：「閨女，你又忘了帶鑰匙啊。」女子驚駭，也哇哇奔逃。這時從墳墓裡鑽出個盜墓的說：「靠，耽誤我工作，This video summarizes my (apparently helpful) answer to someone's question about Bayes' Theorem on Reddit's "Explain Like I'm Five" forum. Bayes' Theorem allows you to look at an event that has already happened and make an educated guess about the chain o...

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有心機的小孩......

8月 14, 2013

王妙萱

kuso

An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem | BetterExplained一個小孩提著死青蛙往妓女戶跑～一到門口，老鴇就擋著門說：「小孩子不可以進來。」那個小孩就說：「我是來玩女人的耶...你怎麼可以拒絕我呀。」老鴇：「哇勒～我們不招待十歲以下的啦，快走。」小孩：「我剛好十歲呀，我不管，我就是要玩。」老鴇：「你十歲呀～那還可以考慮；不過我怕大姐姐們不給你玩耶。」（外加鄙視Bayes’ theorem was the subject of (http://www.yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes). The essay is good, but over 15,000 words long — here’s the condensed version for ... Oddly useful! I’ve been reading Bayes explanations for a while, and this one really hit home ...

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